Presidential Approval and the Recall Referendum in Mexico

The recall referendum known as "consulta de Revocación de Mandato" scheduled for April 10th has at least two features that clearly play in favor of President López Obrador: on one hand, the official question wording yields extra points to the President compared to a simpler and more balanced wording for recall and to the more conventional presidential approval question. On the other hand, the opposition’s strategy of demobilizing angry voters is likely to give the President an even more favorable outcome, in a way that the referendum’s result may not reflect the actual weight of citizen voices for and against the President. Let me explain.

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